The tropics are the talk of H-Town this weekend and the latest update from NHC has disorganized thunderstorms near northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America. Disturbance 2 has 80% chance of developing in the next 7 days, according to the National Hurricane Center - which would be named Helene if forms.
Right now, we’re still watching the jet stream which looks to be a stronger one - putting the area of concern and possible impact Louisiana to Florida.
Since we have a 50% chance for development in the next 2 days and an 80% development in the next 7 days - we still have uncertainty with the forecast.
One factor in whether it moves east or west will be how strong a trough in the jet stream is.
If it is weaker, it will push a bit more to the west. If the jet is stronger, it will sweep it to the east - keeping the path closer to Florida. Right now, most of the models are in pretty good agreement with the development of a strong trough and all indications are that this storm will stay to the east of Texas.
2024 Hurricane Season
The next storm in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be named Helene.
- Tropical Storm Alberto
- Hurricane Beryl
- Tropical Storm Chris
- Hurricane Debby
- Hurricane Ernesto
- Hurricane Francine
- Tropical Storm Gordon
Houston will see two fronts this week that will help push tropical moisture east which will hopefully bring us “fall” like temperatures.