Does this track look odd to you?
I received a handful of questions about the track of Hurricane Milton. Most had to deal with the left to right movement toward Florida. First, let me say this is normal. Hurricanes follow the path of least resistance. Storms will move north until they can’t. Dry air, higher pressure and a front are blocking Milton from moving any further north. That means Milton has to move east. What looks strange to most people is how it formed in the Gulf of Mexico and immediately moves east. It wouldn’t look odd if it had been more organized in the Caribbean and become a depression or storm last week.
Cool fronts and Houston:
The latest a tropical system has hit Houston was Hurricane Jerry on October 16th 1991. The reason our hurricane season ends in mid-October is because of fronts. This time of year our weather pattern changes. Cold fronts start moving farther south and once that first one moves through, the second will soon follow. This changes the upper air pattern. A trough will steer storms east of us protecting us from direct hits from hurricanes. This is a good thing with Milton because this storm is a monster!
Past storms with this track:
There were two storms I found that have this same kind of track, moving west to east. Hurricane Mitch in 1998 makes a hard right turn in the Bay of Campeche. Emily in 2017 formed in the Gulf and moved west to east. There are other examples but simply wanted to make you aware this track has happened before.
Milton is a record setting monster!
At 7pm Monday Milton’s pressure lowered to 897 millibars. This makes Milton the 4th strongest hurricane, based on pressure, since consistent records have been kept in 1979. Only Rita, Gilbert and Wilma were stronger. Here is more on these storms.
Here is my hurricane Milton forecast:
This video is the Monday night Milton track update.
If you have any questions about our weather or hurricanes, feel free to write me at: ayanez@kprc.com.
